Southern California Great Value Picks

jnoel307
May 3
12 min read

Southern California is a hot bed when it comes to draft prospects, that’s not much of a secret. Eleven of the #1 overall picks from this century (likely soon to be twelve) have hailed from the Golden State or were picked from a university in the state. I mean the 2025 draft had three guys from Southern California taken within the first ten selections. California has high-end talent, especially below the Central Valley and that’s a fact.

But what about the great value picks, the guys that aren’t extensively covered in the media that still possess great talent with big potential? We all know the Roch Chowloskys and the Jackson Floras. We can even extend a couple tiers below to the breakout stars like Matthew Thomas, Steele Murdock, Brody Schumaker, and Cal Randall. There’s talent, we get it. But all those guys have gotten some attention in the media, putting them into the minds of at least a few on the national stage. However, with the surplus of value, there’s going to be guys that pass under the radar. The supply is so large that coverage can’t pick up steam everywhere. This is where I come in to highlight some of these underrated stars that can turn heads at the next level.

OF Tommy Farmer IV, UC Irvine

Perhaps a bit of cheating on my part, Tommy Farmer IV should be the most recognizable name here. Farmer was formerly a starter at the University of Texas where he had spent the previous two seasons with the Longhorns. A disappointing 2025 left Farmer to seek new opportunities, eventually landing in Irvine with the Anteaters. While 2026 still isn’t going as he would like, there’s still a lot to unpack from Farmer’s game.

It’s hard to not talk about the defense first. Patrolling in center field, he’s got all the makings of award-winning defense out there. His range is exceptional and the jumps he gets are impeccable. He gets elite level reads when paired with his elite speed, covering an enormous amount of ground in the outfield. Then there’s the speed. Farmer has reached sprint speeds up to 31.5 mph on the base paths with a lowest recorded home-first time of 4.04. It’s an 80 grade level easily. The bat is where the concerns start to arise. As insinuated from the defensive ability, Farmer is a tremendous athlete with a strong athletic build at 6’3 210lbs. There’s plus raw power in his size that’s still yet to be unlocked. The power seems to get lost in translation in his swing. He starts off wide in his stance with a very minimal stride as he begins his swing. His hands are already positioned towards his back half and with almost no load, cuts right to the ball. There is little momentum and a poor transition of weight from his back half that limits the power projection that he actually brings. His swing has become severely contact-oriented in a major effort to reduce his swing and miss. It worked in that regard, dropping his K% from 30.5% to 24.8% but his impact would arguably be better off exchanging the high strikeouts for Farmer’s power. His defensive capabilities and athleticism provide a great foundation for an all-star caliber player but the bat currently lags too far behind to label his potential as such. The ability is there though and that’s what makes him really enticing. He’ll be 22 at the time of the draft and while his offense will require time and dedication, being able to unlock Farmer’s bat can lead to the steal of the draft.

INF Alejandro Garza, Cal Poly

Garza has a real strong case for being the best contact hitter in the country for all of college baseball. He’s been the toughest guy to strikeout, striking out just 5.7% of the time across 664 career plate appearances. He’s making quality contact as well, seeing an increase every year in his hard hit rate. He adjusts well to breaking pitches and presents excellent barrel control to master every quadrant of the zone. He is extremely aggressive at the plate, however. Reminiscent of Luis Arraez, he’s not afraid to chase out of the zone knowing he’ll make contact rather than waiting for his pitch. In fact, a lot of Garza’s profile fits the mold of Luis Arraez. Low walks, low Ks, 80 grade bat to ball skills, limited versatility+speed. The biggest knock of all to Garza, however, is his size. He’s a small guy at 5’9 which would be fine if he can add size to the frame but that’s not looking likely. At just 165lbs, he’s thin with a frame that looks like it won’t be able to add much strength, unlike notable shorter players like Arraez and Jose Ramirez. The less than desired frame doesn’t eliminate him just yet. There’s still success among major leagues his size and frame, Mookie Betts and Adam Frazier being examples with widely opposing profiles. His swing mechanics can allow him to find that success as well. The already mentioned barrel control is a huge plus but Garza swings with a great attack angle that can launch balls into the gap. Despite the elite contact, he’s not a heavy groundball hitter. It can be detrimental to continuously generate lift on the ball with his power but Garza does so while placing backspin that can spray balls into the gap and even sneak over the wall at times. There’s a lot of great traits in his swing that overcome his lack of power. Even with just an additional ten pounds of muscle, a completely different player can be born from within Garza that leads to a future major leaguer.

RHP Carson Turnquist, Cal Poly

Moving on to Garza’s teammate at Cal Poly, Carson Turnquist. Turnquist should almost be considered a freshman with how little he’s pitched entering his fourth year of college baseball. Turnquist began his career at the University of Oklahoma in 2023, making five appearances during his freshman year for a total of five innings. In search of more playing time, Turnquist transferred back to his home of Southern California to Cal Poly. He looked primed for a breakout season before suffering a torn UCL right before the season started and undergoing Tommy John surgery. The injury knocked him out for the 2024 season and nearly the entirety of 2025, returning to pitch just 2.2 innings. He’s finally healthy in 2026 and finally experiencing that breakout, striking out 28.7% of batters across two and a half months of the season so far. Despite being healthy and showing success, there’s little talk surrounding the once highly regarded draft prospect entering his freshman year.

His stuff on the mound has barely taken a hit. His fastball has some present arm-side run while sitting mid 90s, touching 98 at its peak. He generates this power through a strong lower half and a powerful drive derived from a high leg kick, a powerful back leg, and great hip mobility. His upper body is also pretty aggressive during the delivery with a quick, whipping arm action. Because of its violence, the mechanics can become out of sync and the head can whip leading to poor results in command. Worth a mention again that this is still Turnquist’s first real collegiate experience and the repetition is still a work in progress. He’ll pair the fastball with a change and two breakers. The change is electric and is preferred offspeed for his out pitch. It has excellent separation of velocity from his fastball with quality depth that he will also use against righties. The curve breaks in a 10-4 manner with good two-plane action to the pitch that should tunnel well with his running fastball. He’ll use the pitch across both edges of the plate and is comfortable enough to run it through the backdoor to catch hitters off-balanced. The slider is the least used of the four. The pitch is a hard breaker that will sit 82-85 but with limited movement. Even with the limited movement, it provides a different look from his fastball with its glove-side break and can blend in with the curve to keep hitters guessing on the slider. A quality three-pitch mix provides a back of the rotation projection with #3 potential. Inconsistent command looks to improve with time and Turnquist has a very real chance of becoming the second best pitcher out of the abundance of arms in this year’s Big West.

Grades: FB: 55 | CH: 60 | CB: 50 | SL: 45 | Command: 45 | Overall: 45

OF Paul Contreras, Cal State Fullerton

Fullerton aren’t the blue bloods of the past but that doesn’t mean they don’t possess some great talent. Paul Contreras has been among the best bats on the West Coast this year, currently holding the fourth best OPS in the Big West and the best when restricting it to just conference play. As of the end of April, he’s slashing .333/.446/.607 with ten home runs and a walk/strikeout rate of 16% and 14.8% respectively. In addition to his talent, Contreras will enter the draft among the youngest juniors, being just 20 at the time of the draft, not hitting his 21st birthday until a month after the draft’s conclusion.

Contreras showed promise back in high school. He showed off some raw power, reaching exit velos of 100+. Good athleticism was shown in his agility, fast run times, and quick hands. There was just too much going on to gain traction. He was a tall, lanky kid that lacked coordination which was very evident in a messy swing. The ability was there but he couldn’t find the proper channel to let it show. Modesto Junior College took a chance on Contreras and as he began to grow and fill out his body, the talent started emerging. In his lone year at the JC, Contreras slashed .339/.425/.579 and turned this year into a commitment to Cal State Fullerton. The sophomore year wasn’t anything impressive but did still show some promise with a .210 ISO and a sub 25% K rate. Now, he’s putting up the numbers mentioned at the beginning. What was once a loud and noisy swing has been reduced to a simple setup that lets Contreras’ athleticism and strength do the work. All distractions are limited with minimal movement in his hands and a short leg kick. His ever quick hands get the barrel to the ball quickly and an explosive torque and strong upper body generate plus power in his swing. The swing is quick and creates lift under the ball. He’s changed his approach as well to create better contact. He has become more patient at the beginning of counts and adjusted his approach in two-strike counts, eliminating the leg kick completely. As a result, the walks have climbed, the strikeouts have dropped, and the whiff and chase rates have fallen. Contreras profiles similarly to another outfielder in the Los Angeles area, Matthew Thomas, albeit with less power potential and a better hit tool. The improved swing looks amazing and is working out well in-game. Contreras brings plus power potential with a solid hit tool that still looks to be on its way to improving. The power and athleticism is Contreras’ calling card and he can likely be snagged towards the back half of the draft.

RHP Alfredo Capacete II, California Baptist

Riverside representation! Only one active player attended a college in the Inland Empire (Tyler Wells). Within the last fifteen years, only four players have played in the majors after having attended a college in the Inland Empire. While California is a hot bed, the universities in this specific area tend to not be. California Baptist is changing things up, Nick Dumensil last year, Cody New this year, and Chris Ramirez next year. Another guy to throw into the mix for this year is Alfredo Capacete II. Capacete made his way to California Baptist over from the other big school in the desert, UC Riverside. He made his way onto campus, fresh off a 7.94 ERA in the bullpen and topping out at 92. He lacked definition despite a good frame at 6’3 210lbs and clearly needed to add muscle. As expected, his junior year didn’t see him get much action, just 6.2 innings across five appearances. This year was more than just a lost year, however, it became crucial to his development.

Capacete entered the 2026 season listed at 6’3 215lbs. Not much different from his previous listed size but much different just from looking at him. There’s added strength to his size and it’s become evident in his fastball. Where he once was topping out at 92, now sits comfortably above it in the mid 90s, even maxing out at 98 mph. His delivery has changed to utilize his lower half better to channel his strength. The leg kick is a bit higher and the arm motion a little longer. He coils into his back half a lot more. Before, he would remain open towards third base for a simple motion. Now, he closes off even further, open towards the shortstop for a much bigger coil. He’s generating more force within his body and it’s paying off and leading to a higher velocity. Most importantly, he’s maintaining his control. Even in his struggles, Capacete kept excellent control. In the 7.94 ERA season, he kept a 8% BB rate in 45.1 innings. Out of the bullpen this year, the walk rate is at 4.6% across 16.1 innings. The strikeout rate, meanwhile, has jumped from 20.7% to 38.5%. The velocity is doing wonders. Capacete drives well down the mound for above average extension and living at the top of the zone, gets good whiffs on the fastball. In addition to the fastball, he’ll mix in a slider and a changeup. The slider gets great two-plane movement and he dots the pitch with ease. He’ll work it into lefties and the pitch is viable to hitters of both sides of the plate. Capacete’s most comfortable throwing the pitch to his glove-side, making it more effective against righties. That’s where the change will come in as the primary out pitch to lefties. There’s not much separation in velocity - sitting 85-88 - but the pitch gets good depth with a bit of tail as well. The change is the least controlled of his pitches but he tends to miss out of the zone, leaving it out of the danger zone. There’s prior starting experience but no recent experience (or success) will likely paint a bullpen projection. An additional secondary with a tighter horizontal break could change this perception. This is just wishful thinking either. What I didn’t mention before is Capacete is a natural pronator. While his fastball does carry some natural arm-side movement, his ability to pronate can help him lean more into that movement to add a sinker to the profile. And unlike most pronators, Capacete has a well moving slider that moves in a typical slider fashion. A different shaped slider (think gyro shaped) can add more diversity to the profile and bring a blend of two different slider shapes. Ignoring all these ifs, the developments in Capacete’s delivery has led to a breakout at just the right time. Good velocity, better control, and three solid pitch shapes all contribute to a good reliever profile with potential for a lot more. He’s young for a college senior as he won’t turn 22 until December. There’s a big gap between ceiling and floor but the floor is already at a good spot that makes the gamble more attractive.

Grades: FB: 55 | SL: 50 | CH: 50 | Command: 55 | Overall: 40

OF Landon McDonald, Bakersfield CC

Let’s have a little fun here. I’ll preface by saying the likelihood of McDonald getting drafted is the lowest out of everyone listed here, especially considering he’s a JUCO freshman. Even if it doesn’t happen this year, I believe next year presents just as good of a shot. McDonald went to high school at Frontier in Bakersfield, not really a school known for baseball but they’ve had their fair share of draftees. The competition level possibly played a part in leaving McDonald uncommitted out of high school despite the impressive high school stats.

Even in high school, McDonald looked to have big power projection. Upon graduation, he was listed at 5’11, 190lbs. His listed size now is 6’1, 215lbs. Slightly taller and filled out with more muscle, McDonald has really leaned into his power potential at Bakersfield. In 2026, he’s leading all of California community colleges in home runs (15) while also leading in batting average (.492). In 39 games played (185 PA), he’s struck out 10.8% of the time while walking 23.2%. He puts the ball in the air at a 40% clip, maximizing his power potential. Unlike in high school also, the league he plays in contains much better competition featuring good LA area schools such as Glendale and Citrus and playing series against Golden West and Cerritos. As expected with the power, his swing is extremely violent. He loads up with a powerful coil and turns with explosive force. His swing has changed a bit since high school where previously, he was closed off, had a low leg kick, and swayed with his hands nearly in a circular motion. It was a pretty ugly swing but it put up good numbers. Now, he’s opened up more, using a step to set up his timing before getting into his swing. He’s added more of a leg kick in addition to the step to better get his timing down. He’s abandoned the circular motion, still with a bit of sway but keeping it strictly horizontal rather than dropping his hands. The combination of these little changes have helped to make better contact, vastly improving his numbers from high school while still keeping the impressive power. There’s still a little swing and miss as he naturally likes to get under the ball but he’s fared well against fastballs and breaking pitches alike with a good adjustment to the offspeed. Defensively, it can start to get a little worrisome with his mobility. He’s still a decent mover but his footwork was never too impressive and with his growing size, is starting to project more to below-average speed (about a 40 FV grade, 45 right now). He’s moved from the infield to the outfield although he profiles the best at third. He’s got quick hands on the transfer with a strong, accurate arm. The speed and footwork don’t do him much favors in the outfield as opposed to third and he could possibly work towards an average defensive grade at third. The power is the highlight. Already a plus tool with a 60 grade FV, there’s a lot of promise that he brings. He’s shown big improvements in the hit tool while also showing an ability to adjust and learn to make these improvements. He remains uncommitted heading into his sophomore season but he’s shown enough already to warrant some attention.